STATISTICS: Westerners Aren’t Having Enough Children — It’s Horrifying

August 6, 2017

STATISTICS: Westerners Aren’t Having Enough Children — It’s Horrifying vectorfusionart /

The world is changing and it’s not just about climate change, geopolitical events, or social media. The fertility rate in Western countries has fallen well below the level needed to maintain their populations. As a result, populations are forecasted to fall dramatically; by over one half in Germany, Italy, and Australia. Japan and China are not far behind.

Unless things change, the birth-rate-driven population collapse, coupled with the influx of immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries, will dramatically change the demographics and cultural balance of the planet. As soon as 2070, Islam will replace Christianity as the worlds largest religion.

Unfortunately, such a dramatic change will not happen without considerable tension, perhaps even violence, as we have already begun to see.

Population growth will decline and stop in this century

According to statistics from the United Nations, the major changes in birth rates signal that the Earth will reach a maximum population of 8.7 billion by 2055 and fall to 8 billion by 2100. Other studies conclude that the population will be in freefall by 2076 and that the populations of some major countries will decline by as much as 60%.

Most of us don’t even think about the birth rate, but it will profoundly affect the economy, politics, and cultural makeup of future populations on the planet. And it’s not even on most peoples’ radar.

In fact, as mega-entrepreneur Elon Musk recently tweeted:

The world’s population is accelerating towards collapse, but few seem to notice or care.

Well-designed immigration policies, education and welfare reform, and strong economic growth are all part of the solution; but beware of the social turmoil that may accompany the transition.

A falling birth rate signals trouble

The birth rate is very important to the economy. A slow or declining population, caused by a low birth rate or migration, typically leads to slower economic growth or even decline. A higher birth rate tends to keep the population young and growing, which helps sustain a robust economy.

After all, babies grow up to be the next generation; a larger next generation, coupled with productivity increases, is able to work productively, pay taxes to sustain a country’s infrastructure, support pensions and entitlements of the prior generation, and generally leave the country in better shape than they got it.

Although the world’s population is still growing, primarily due to high birth rates in Africa and India, more than half the countries in the world, especially those with western cultures, have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Alarmingly, history shows that countries with low fertility levels never recover.

Accordingly, many demographers’ forecasts agree that by 2076 a dramatic fall in world population will be well under way.

Many western economies are already suffering

Among western countries, Europe is teetering on the brink at less than 1.5 children per woman. Germany and Italy could see their populations fall by over one half in the next 60 years.

Birth rates in Asia have also fallen as well. China and Japan have fertility rates of 1.6 and 1.4 babies per woman, respectively, which does not bode well for their economies in the future.

A relatively high U.S. birth rate, compared to Europe is a major reason for our robust economy. According to economist Donald Bordeaux:

Everybody comes into the world with one mouth and two hands […] It’s generally true that most people produce more than they consume.

However, the U.S. birth rate peaked in 1957, then leveled off until 2008 and has been steadily falling ever since, falling to a record low of 1.8 children per woman. It’s still higher than Europe and Japan, but certainly a noteworthy drop.

Some experts point to the weak economy as a reason for the decline.  The decline may have been due to the slow economic recovery following the great recession and the burden of government spending and regulation imposed by the Obama administration.

Because of the uncertain job outlook, young people unable to find good-paying jobs are marrying later and delaying having a family due to financial uncertainty.

This drop could signal a lower standard of living for future generations of Americans as smaller populations struggle to pay for the entitlements supporting older Americans, along with an infrastructure and economy calibrated for a larger population.

Religious and cultural change

Countries with falling birth rates depend on immigration to keep their populations growing and providing skilled workers needed by the economy. But open borders are not a clear solution.

The majority of illegal immigrants coming into the U.S. are uneducated, and many have become a drain on the welfare and educational systems of the communities they have settled in.

Furthermore, as countries with falling birth rates rely more and more on immigration to buoy their populations, a growing portion of the immigrants may come from religious backgrounds that create cultural fictions in secular societies. Islamic societies tend to have a much higher birth rate than secular or Christian ones, and may even be driven to use a higher birth rate to assimilate into other cultures and ultimately convert them to Islam.

In fact, Pew Research forecasts, that by 2070, Islam will surpass Christianity as the largest religion in the world. and will replace Christianity as the dominant religion, in the UK, France, and Australia. The future is already apparent in the UK; the most popular name for baby boys born in London is Mohammed.

Due to their higher birth rate, Muslims tend to be younger than the general public. As a result, a larger portion of Muslims are of child bearing age and are having more and more children to replace themselves.

Having more children is not an accident: it is guidance from the Koran and preached by the imams as well. Recently, a prominent imam told Muslim followers to exploit the migrant crisis and ‘conquer their countries’.

Speaking in Jerusalem, Shiek Muhammad Ayed preached that Muslims must intermarry and have children with westerners so they could then “trample them [the infidels] underfoot.”

Ayed went on to say:

Throughout Europe, all the [infidels’] hearts are enthused with hatred toward Muslims. They wish that we were dead, but they have lost their fertility, so they look for fertility in our midst . . . We will give them fertility. We will breed children with them because we shall conquer their countries.

In some countries, immigration and an influx of refugees have driven cultural change. The political and cultural underpinnings of Islam may isolate their subcultures from broader assimilation. As the Muslim population grows and no-go zones become common, such incidents may grow worse.

Are discreet political-Islamic subcultures a more visible part of the western world’s future? Probably, but to what extent depends on a number of complicated influences, like the assimilation of Muslim immigrants into western culture, immigration policies, and the ability of the economy to generate jobs and prosperity that will enable westerners to support larger families.

And what about the falling birth rate? Unless sometime changes, influence from high-birthrate populations will continue to grow. These populations, including many Muslim-majority populations, must choose to assimilate their values with western values, and both native and immigrant populations must view each other as equals before the law.

Evidence shows that prosperity spawns higher birth rates. Hopefully, the American economy will be part of the solution.

A booming economy can not only get the population growing again, but the workplace can be a great platform for cultural assimilation. And when America prospers, the rest of the world often prospers as well.

Editor’s Note: This article addresses recent demographic trends in Europe as a social science, specifically noting how cultural values of European society change to reflect the values and behaviors of incoming populations. Although some immigration statistics consider its aggregate effects and fiscal costs, we emphasize that our response should never generalize about entire groups purely on the basis of religion or ethnic origin. We care only about the political and cultural beliefs of specific subsets of these immigrant populations, as reflected in the data above.

Conservative Institute stands against bigotry in all forms, and continues to believe that nothing is more offensive to conservative ideas than judging someone on the basis of ethnic or racial heritage rather than individual behavior.

Raymond O'Lenic

Raymond O'Lenic is a Conservative Institute Staff Writer. He is a former business executive with a background in Finance. He writes on politics, economics, business and technology.