‘Trump’s Nightmare’ report: House GOP may lose dozens of seats

January 15, 2018

Many of his supporters saw Donald Trump’s 2016 victory as a turning of the socialist tide that had been growing since Barack Obama became president in 2008. The midterm elections, however, remain on the minds of many Americans — and if the GOP loses control of Congress in November, it will spell trouble for Trump’s agenda.

Once thought to be a mere possibility, a new forecast has the GOP much worse off than previously predicted. According to Axios, a House Democrat takeover in the midterms is not only possible — but likely.

The Situation

The Democrats need to win 24 seats in order to win control of the House of Representatives, but while that may seem like a lot, it’s all too doable for the blue party. On average, a first-term president’s party loses roughly 32 House seats after the first midterm election of a new presidency, according to Axios.

But Axios is forecasting that as many as 40 seats may go Democrat in the fall, giving the left a more-than-solid footing in the House.

One strategist quoted by Axios even says a Dem victory is “baked in,” and “top Republicans don’t see a way to avoid it,” especially with 29 open seats in the House, due in part to 8 GOP representatives retiring.

In addition, a record number of women are running for office — the majority of which are Democrats — which could earn the Dems a few new seats.

If the Democrats can gain these spots, the numerous committee chair positions that will become available thanks to a Newt Gingrich-era reform will allow them to tie up legislation indefinitely — and call for as many investigative hearings as they like. They may even put the presidency itself in danger with repeated impeachment attempts.

But Could a Dem Takeover Really Happen?

While the Axios report sounds dire for the GOP, it leaves out a few salient points. Several Democrat members of Congress have also resigned or plan to retire, many due to sexual misconduct allegations that make the entire blue party look bad.

For instance, Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) resigned his seat and his position as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee in late 2017 amid an investigation on sexual harassment.

Additionally, Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) resigned for the same reason; his position on the Senate Judiciary Committee and subcommittees on Privacy, Technology, and the Law are also open.

Finally, freshman lawmaker Ruben Kihuen (D-Nev.) has also announced he won’t be running for reelection after sexual misconduct allegations. And with two female serving members of Congress claiming there are plenty more harassers in the House and Senate, that number could rise in the months leading up to November’s midterm elections.

Either way, the GOP’s performance at midterms is a bit early to call — the trumpets of victory being sounded by the mainstream media are far too premature. We’ll all have to wait and see what happens come November.

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Kit Perez

Kit Perez is a Conservative Institute contributor. She is an intelligence analyst with a dual specialty in counterintelligence and HUMINT. She writes on national security, tech, and privacy issues. Kit has a B.A. in Counterintelligence and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies from American Military University.