Poll: Trump trailing Biden, other Dems in hypothetical 2020 matchups

June 17, 2019

As the crowded Democrat primary battle continues, President Donald Trump may already be in real electoral trouble, according to a new Fox poll.

The president currently trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 10 points, according to the survey released on Sunday, which also showed that Trump would lose to various other 2020 Democrat candidates if the general election were held today. President Trump blasted the “fake poll” in a tweet Monday.

Although the poll doesn’t look good for Trump, early polling also did not prove prophetic for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Jarring numbers

The new poll, conducted between June 9 and June 12, shows Trump trailing Biden by a margin wide as ten points. The poll shows Biden with 49% support against Trump’s 39%.

Biden is the Democrat frontrunner, and the former vice president has been operating his campaign as though he were the presumed nominee, with attacks focused mainly on Trump rather than on his primary rivals. For his part, Trump has spent more time bashing Biden than any 2020 Democrat, but Trump insists that he isn’t worried about losing to the 76-year-old, whom he has dubbed “Sleepy Joe.”

Biden is running a politically moderate campaign based on a message of restoring the American greatness laid low by Trump and his alleged bigotry. The Democrat has suffered continual embarrassments and attacks from his rivals since even before entering the race, but he is currently leading the pack, and by Biden’s reckoning, remains the only Democrat with enough popularity and name recognition to defeat Trump.

However, in more bad news for Trump, the Fox poll also showed Trump trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) by nine points, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) by two points, and Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg by one point, respectively. The survey had a three-point margin of error.

While there is certainly hunger for the change that these more progressive candidates are promising, many Democrats have prioritized simply getting Trump out of the White House. The poll also showed that Biden leads his primary rivals by a substantial amount, and that most voters want a candidate who can “unite Americans around shared beliefs” and who offers “steady, reliable leadership” rather than “a bold, new agenda.” That could be good news for Biden, who is running a conventional and safe campaign centered on the proposition that only he can defeat Trump.

Biden is competing with Trump for voters up for grabs in the Rust Belt who responded to Trump’s anti-establishment message. Some Democrats including Sanders have been received surprisingly well in Trump country on account of their working class-focused economic message.

Trump blasts “fake” poll

While early numbers may show that Trump could be in trouble, polling in the 2016 proved inaccurate all the way up to Election Day itself. President Trump’s surprise victory bucked the projections of pollsters and experts who predicted a comfortable Clinton result for months.

Still, it’s far from certain that Trump will repeat his shocking 2016 win. The Trump campaign fired pollsters after leaked internal polling showed the president falling behind Biden in critical battleground states such as Florida and Michigan. On Monday, Trump blasted the Fox poll as “fake” and warned poll watchers to remember that it’s “far too early” to make any accurate predictions.

“Only Fake Polls show us behind the Motley Crew. We are looking really good, but it is far too early to be focused on that​,” he wrote on Twitter. “Much work to do! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!​”

While Trump campaigns on a “Keep America Great” agenda, the president has conspicuously failed to fulfill key promises, particularly that of building a southern border wall. The immigration crisis has reached new and extreme levels, while lasting solutions to America’s porous border have proven elusive. Furthermore, while Trump has failed to end any major wars in the Middle East, his administration has arguably brought America to the edge of conflict with Iran.

Trump will kick off his re-election campaign Tuesday in the Sunshine State with a rally in Orlando.

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Matthew Boose

Matthew Boose is a staff writer for Conservative Institute. He has a Bachelor's degree from Stony Brook University and has contributed to The Daily Caller and The Stony Brook Press.