Financial experts now doubtful there will be a recession in 2020

January 14, 2020

Russia collusion couldn’t do it, Stormy Daniels couldn’t do it, Ukraine couldn’t do it, and no, the economy won’t do it either.

Democrats hoping that a recession will tank Donald Trump’s re-election odds should be worried, according to financial experts, the Daily Wire reported. Donald Trump heads into his re-election campaign with excellent job numbers, a record-high stock market and wage increases for low-income laborers.

Bad news for Dems as recession odds drop

Bloomberg, which is owned and operated by Democratic presidential hopeful Michael Bloomberg, put odds of a recession at 29%, lower than last year when panic picked up in summer. Many in the media appeared to almost wish for an economic meltdown, just to hurt Trump, as Wall Street speculated that an inverted yield curve was predicting an election year recession.

After a spike in the summer, recession panic subsided as the yield curve reverted in October, and strong jobs numbers through the fall have continued to dampen the risk of a downturn.

While Trump’s trade wars still pose risks, the president’s economy is buoyed by “record-high stock prices and positive hiring momentum” and the chances of a recession will likely keep dropping, Bloomberg reported.

Multiple Wall Street economists have made similar predictions based on current market behavior and the latest labor data.

The president’s economy has seen record-high stock numbers, but it’s not just Wall Street that’s booming: wages have increased for the first time in decades, including for the lowest-income workers, and unemployment has reached half-century lows.

In retrospect, the nervous recession chatter appears to be fizzling as risk factors, namely Trump’s trade wars, have cooled off. A group of business experts told Barron’s that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year, and economists for Goldman Sachs said the economy is poised for a “soft landing” rather than a crash.

Trump buoyed by economy, Dem defeats

The speculation of recession was always buoyed by hopes that an economic disaster actually would materialize and hurt Trump’s re-election odds. But having survived scandal after scandal, bombshell after bombshell, President Donald Trump is entering his re-election year with multiple tailwinds.

An effort to impeach him has already fizzled out and is expected to end with his acquittal and vindication.

Meanwhile, the Democrats seeking to unseat him still don’t have a compelling frontrunner, and the race is getting bloody as Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have begun attacking each other’s character.

For most people outside Washington, D.C., it isn’t these insular media dramas that matter. It’s still the “economy, stupid,” and right now Trump’s economy is looking reasonably robust.

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Matthew Boose

Matthew Boose is a staff writer for Conservative Institute. He has a Bachelor's degree from Stony Brook University and has contributed to The Daily Caller and The Stony Brook Press.